NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)—Bitcoin and the wider crypto market have recently seen a rise, largely driven by historical patterns and ongoing economic developments. October, often referred to as “Uptober,” has been a key factor. Recent events in China and the U.S. are also influencing investor behavior.
Bitcoin’s Strong October Performance
Historically, October has been one of the best-performing months for the crypto Market. On average, Bitcoin has delivered around 22% returns during this period, with some years seeing gains as high as 60%. Investors have long anticipated a bullish market during this month, based on these consistent trends.
As October 2024 kicked off, Bitcoin saw a surge in buying activity, especially from large investors known as whales and those holding stablecoins. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that the dynamics between buy and sell orders have changed for the first time since May 2021. Buy walls are now stronger than sell walls, a clear sign that faith in Bitcoin is growing.
China’s Stimulus Efforts and U.S. Political Factors
Crypto market rally has been further driven by China’s fiscal stimulus measures. Although the lack of clarity around the extent of these efforts has led investors to explore alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. The uncertainty in Chinese equities markets has caused capital rotation into Bitcoin, pushing its price to new highs.
At the same time, institutional interest in Bitcoin is ramping up. On Oct. 14, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their biggest single-day inflows in over four months, with $555 million entering 11 ETFs. Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, referred to this as a “monster day” for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
As of Oct. 15, Trump’s odds of victory on Polymarket stand at 55.5%. Harris’s have dropped to 44.2%, marking her lowest point since launching her campaign. Markets are reacting to the increased likelihood of a pro-crypto Republican candidate, with Donald Trump leading in recent polling.
Trading firm QCP Capital has stated that the current Bitcoin price action is similar to those prior to the US presidential elections of 2016 and 2020. In both instances, the price of BTC increased in the week that preceded the election.
The extension of Mt. Gox creditor repayments to October 31, 2025, has also relieved pressure on a flood of Bitcoin supply increase into the market. Benjamin Celermajer of Magnet Capital pointed out that the delay alleviate near-term concern of over supply and has recently offered a positive sentiment in the market.
The increase in the crypto market can be attributed to factors such as past performance of Bitcoin in October, an influx in the Chinese market due to stimulus and progression in political policies in the U.S.
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