Tesla stock upside currently hinges on two simultaneous narratives: a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX alongside the upcoming Tesla Roadster unveiling. Elon Musk coupled the phrase “Tesla x SpaceX” with the Roadster livestream link, coinciding with a Bloomberg report that Barclays noted the two firms could announce a combination ahead of Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, which is scheduled for December 6. At the time of writing, neither company has confirmed any ongoing discussions.
Elon Musk’s social media post arrives at a critical juncture for Tesla shares. According to Yahoo Finance figures, the one-year analyst consensus target sits at $397.83, representing roughly a 9.8% premium over the October 15 closing price of $362.44, which underpins the current Tesla stock forecast.
Tesla Stock Upside: SpaceX Merger Odds and Roadster Reveal
With TSLA down about 19% year-to-date, any meaningful catalyst holds weight, which explains why discussions regarding Tesla stock upside consistently gravitate back toward SpaceX.
Why The Tesla SpaceX Merger Talk Keeps Coming Back
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share, commanding a $1.77 trillion valuation in what marked the largest IPO on record. Although the stock peaked at $225.64 shortly after before declining, it still finished October 14 with a market capitalization of $2.07 trillion. Furthermore, SpaceX acquired Musk’s artificial intelligence venture, xAI, in February, further tightening the ties between Tesla stock and Elon Musk’s other corporate enterprises.
In an October 14 note, Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote:
“While the industrial logic of a combination had been in question, we believe recent management comments indicate they see key benefits of a combination.”
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates the probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger by 2027 to be higher than 80%, bolstering the argument for Tesla stock upside. Conversely, prediction markets remain more skeptical, pricing a deal happening by the end of the year at only 24% odds.
Barclays Sees A SpaceX Buyout As The Likelier Route
Barclays suggests that a scenario where SpaceX acquires Tesla using stock is the more plausible path forward. Levy calculates that Tesla investors would receive 0.7 SpaceX shares apiece, leaving Musk with approximately 37% of the equity and 56% of the voting power.
While Levy anticipates certain financial synergies, he identifies vertical integration as the primary value driver, highlighting the collaborative Terafab chip facility as a central catalyst. Barclays also points to the integration of Tesla’s robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots with SpaceX’s artificial intelligence initiatives as a major source of potential Tesla stock upside. During the July earnings call, Musk addressed the topic, stating:
“Obviously we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on a call. It’s got to be done with the appropriate process.”
Can The Tesla Roadster Reveal Lift The Tesla Stock Forecast?
The upcoming Tesla Roadster reveal could capture immediate attention and generate short-term Tesla stock upside. Bettors on Polymarket assign a 60% probability to the sports car achieving flight for at least one second. According to reports, a remotely operated Roadster will utilize SpaceX compressed-gas thrusters to hover, a stunt that brings Tesla stock and Elon Musk’s aerospace venture onto a shared stage.
Historical precedent, however, serves as a cautionary tale. Wall Street has often reacted negatively to past Tesla product launches; shares declined following the rollout of the Cybertruck, the 2024 Cybercab robotaxi, and a subsequent Cybercab event in September. Historically, a high-profile reveal alone has rarely generated sustained Tesla stock upside.
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An actual flight demonstration would resolve the Polymarket wager, but only a regulatory filing would finalize a merger. Until then, the trajectory of the Tesla stock forecast depends heavily on how much upside investors are willing to attribute to a founder at the helm of two trillion-dollar public corporations.