Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 per share price target for SpaceX, with analyst Adam Jonas reaffirming both the figure and an Overweight rating in a Sunday note. On October 5, the stock finished the session at $171.09, marking a 7.63% increase and suggesting an approximate 75% upside toward the $300 goal. This reiteration from Morgan Stanley coincided with Elon Musk confirming discussions between SpaceX and TSMC regarding the Terafab chip initiative.
Also Read: SpaceX Stock Forecast: Needham Sees $250, Bernstein $248, BofA $235
SpaceX Stock Target, $300 Forecast and TSMC Talks Explained
During overnight trading, the stock traded between $158.62 and $172.47, settling at $172.21 at the time of writing. Volume reached roughly 134.4 million shares traded, significantly outpacing the 91.3 million average. The $300 target remains well above the 52-week high of $225.64 and the consensus one-year estimate of $227.44.
Why Morgan Stanley Keeps Its SpaceX Stock Target At $300
In his note titled “SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper,” Jonas noted that at a $159 share price, the stock trades at approximately 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, compared to about 16 times for mega-cap AI leaders. Factoring in growth brings that metric down to roughly 0.3 times, sitting nearly 40% under the peer median.
Adam Jonas said:
“We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap.”
The financial institution assigns $127 per share to the Space and Connectivity divisions at a $159 valuation, leaving roughly $32 per share attributed to AI. This division forms the core of Morgan Stanley’s rationale, meaning the $300 price target relies heavily on the success of the AI segment.
SpaceX TSMC Talks Bring A New Chip Angle
On October 3, Musk verified via X that Terafab—the semiconductor venture supported by Tesla and SpaceX—is engaged in preliminary talks with TSMC. The proposed facility would manufacture semiconductors for xAI, Tesla, and SpaceX.
Elon Musk had this to say:
“Just discussions, but something may come of it.”
Without a formal contract, timeline, or financial figure established—and with TSMC withholding comment—these discussions currently function more as an auxiliary prospect than a foundational pillar of the valuation target.
Starship Flight 15 Is The Next Big Test
Jonas stated:
“We believe future AI product releases, Starship progress, and additional neocloud contracts showing continued pricing around $30-50/watt are all upside-skewed catalysts that can push the stock closer to our $300/share price target.”
Upcoming milestones include Starship Flight 15 scheduled for late October or early November, which Jonas suggested could yield the most significant positive catalyst since the IPO if the ship catch succeeds. Additionally, third-quarter financial results are anticipated around November 3. Any of these developments could sway the outlook for the stock.
Because trailing EPS remains at -$1.10, the $300 forecast depends on profitability expected several years into the future. Meanwhile, John Blackledge of TD Cowen initiated coverage last week with a Buy recommendation and a $200 target, providing a more conservative perspective within the market. For observers tracking Morgan Stanley’s thesis, meeting schedules for Starship and AI agreements remain critical, as test flight outcomes can trigger substantial volatility in the share price.